Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Do We Care About The Pacers?

After playing the Bulls closely for 2 games, the Indiana Pacers almost seem relevant. Is this something they can build off of or are they just catching the Bulls in a slump? A look back shows that the Bulls haven’t had convincing blowout wins against bad teams. Regardless, the Pacers’ play has been focused, outside of the last 3 minutes of each game.

Hold on though, are we just going to ignore that Indiana finished the season with 8 more losses than wins? How about the fact that their leading scorer, Danny Granger, shoots a measly 42.5%. The best case scenario for next season is sneaking up to a sixth seed and then losing in 6. Admittedly I don’t ever watch Pacers games, and it seems like they do have some nice pieces in Granger, Collison, and Hibbert. But why are they 37-45 in the East then?

Friday, April 15, 2011

My Thoughts On The Western Conference

Memphis Grizzlies

It’s sad that Rudy Gay will not be playing in the playoffs. Before the FIBA world championships started, I thought that Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, and Andre Iguodala were all pretty much the same player. Boy was I wrong. Iguodala could really defend, and Gay was very active offensively. Granger was good for sitting on the bench.

I don’t know much about the Grizzlies but at least I don’t expect them to be future roadkill like the Pacers.

New Orleans Hornets

David West hurt. Chris Paul playing hurt. Marco Belinelli as a starter (37 points in summer league!!!). Trevor Ariza shooting a career low 39.8%. Not much to say here.

Portland

Another team I don’t know much about. So let’s talk about Greg Oden instead.

We as fans have been robbed. We should be watching the Blazers and the Thunder dueling as the up and coming teams of the West. We should be having debates about the different makeup of the teams, having your best players be your center and shooting guard or your small forward and point guard. We could be watching someone smack Andrew Bynum around and telling him “You want to be an All-Star? You gotta get through me first.” But it seems that this is not to be.

Denver

I have to admit that I am a bit of a Henry Abbott Hater. In case you’re unaware, he manages the TrueHoop blog on ESPN and he’s written so many anti-Kobe articles that he’s become a one trick, ugly butt, pony. I’m okay with him writing the articles, but it’s gotten to the point where he’s essentially writing the same thing over and over. But hey, it gets page views and then he gets to go on talk shows so whoopee.

Don’t worry, I’m going somewhere with this. On a podcast, Abbott said that a Denver-Bulls Finals match up would be great for ratings. I laughed so hard. Then I proceeded to roll around on the ground while laughing. He also picked Denver to win in 7.

Anyway, I think Denver is a fun team to watch, but now I want them to lose in 4. I’m such a hater.

Oklahoma City Thunder

In the rush to crown Durant MVP before the season started, many people forgot that basketball had to actually be played first. And when Durant didn’t wow everyone immediately, the media found the next nicest guy to crown MVP, Derrick Rose. Kevin Durant is the anti-Lebron, except when he’s not. Remember when he called out Chris Bosh as a fake tough guy and then didn’t back down publicly? Not much was made of it because he’s the nice guy, and it helped that everyone was making fun of Bosh anyway.

I’m just curious if there’s any precedent for someone being such the frontrunner for MVP before the season even starts, and then suddenly dropping off the map. Much of it has to do with the emergence of Westbrook, who plays like the ball made a disparaging remark to his mother and the only way to avenge his family’s honor is to dunk the ball. His ascension has done wonders for the team, but it pretty much ruined Durant’s chance at MVP. In this league, the MVP race is not only about the best story, but the timing of it too. Your feel good story has to peak at the right time. Durant came in with such high expectations that once he had a slow start, he had a path equally as difficult as Lebron’s.

Dallas Mavericks

I’ve always liked the Mavs, going back to the end of the Nash/Dirk/Nelson days. They had some pretty good games against the Sacramento Kings in the playoffs where no one cared about defense. They also have some very relaxing jersey colors. I had Terry, Dirk, and Kidd on my fantasy team this year so I’ve been following pretty closely and heavily invested in the team.

I’ve watched quite a few Mavs games this year and mostly I’ve been pretty impressed. Good teams know what they want to do in crunch time, and having that plan is half the battle. I made comparisons to the Celtics earlier in the year because the Mavs have so many options in the offense they run. They’re direct in their approach, and yet flexible at the same time. Their zone defense is also very fun to watch, simply because they’re one of the few teams in the league that employ it well.

Side note: All the tough guys in the league think that running a zone means you’re not manly enough to play man to man. The Mavs don’t seem to care about this perception, probably because they kind of suck at defense individually. Despite Jason Kidd’s aerodynamic baldness, he’s just not that fast. Jason “Jet” Terry fits his nickname quite well; he has problems changing directions quickly. Dirk isn’t a soft marshmallow, but maybe more like a stale, sort of soft, marshmallow.

Side note 2: I’m not sure if this was just a dream but I read/dreamed that Rick Carlisle implemented some variation of the Triangle Offense, called the Square Offense.

I find it hilarious how everyone has jumped onto the Trailblazers bandwagon. Even as the third seed, no one believes in the Mavs anymore. I myself picked the Blazers to win in 7, but I’d be happy to see the Mavs advance. The more I think about it the more I want to switch my pick to the Mavs, but you know what they say. The first guess is right 90% of the time.

San Antonio Spurs

For the past 5 years, the chorus of “Despite a slow start, you can never count out the Spurs” has been getting quieter and quieter. It’s not news that as we get older, our hearing deteriorates. The Spurs are an aging, veteran team and I imagine that someone mentioned to them that they would have to ‘flip the switch’ this season and they misheard it as ‘flip the script’. How else do you explain the sudden change in just about everything?

Slow Start? They rolled out to a 37-6 start. Defense first? Nope, best offense in the league. No off court drama? Tony Parker cheats on his wife. In past years, even if the Spurs were 0-82, everyone said that they still had a chance to win the championship. Now, with the best record in the league, they’ve already been written off. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had also switched their jersey colors for home/away games.

The Spurs should be a fun team to watch this year. They have the highest offensive efficiency in the league, take tons of 3’s, and aren’t slow anymore. You’ve got Tony Parker as one of the best finishers in the league, Manu Ginobili as their Kobe-lite who hits big shots, and Duncan dunkin’. (Well, the Duncan part isn’t true anymore, he’s more likely to be at a Dunkin’ Donuts than dunking basketballs now.) Matt Bonner hitting 3’s with his unique form is always a beauty.

One person I do have my eye on is Tiago Splitter. I’m of the opinion that the Spurs will need healthy contributions from him to go far in these playoffs. ACL-less Dejuan Blair reminds me of a rolly-polly, and he’s not going to be enough to stop the big centers. I can’t wait for the day when we’ll hear these phrases all in one game.

"Duncan dunks the ball!”
”Splitter splits the defense!”
”Parker… parks his car.”

Los Angeles Lakers

Great season for the Lakers. I predicted before the season started that they wouldn’t get the 1 seed, and I’d like to pat myself on the back for getting that correct. Despite that, they’ve kept relatively focused and made enough of a run to get the all important 2 seed in the competitive West.

Unfortunately, this season has slowly shifted my perception of Kobe. Even while having two posters of him up on my walls, I feel comfortable telling you that I’m not a Kobe groupie. It’s often said that Kobe is the closest thing we will ever have to Michael Jordan, but more and more, I feel that’s just like saying margarine is the closest thing we have to butter. Forget the margarine, if I can’t have my butter on my toast, I’ll just get jam. Perhaps the mist and fog of only knowing Jordan through highlight tapes makes me wholly unqualified to make any sort of comparison, but Kobe Bryant is not Michael Jordan. At all. Even if Kobe Bryant gets a seventh ring, I’d feel dirty trying to argue that he’s on the level of Michael Jordan.

My first statistic when I make the comparison is always FG%. Jordan had a career 49.7%, which was hurt by those two imaginary years as a Wizard. Kobe is at 45.4%. I’m not going to throw two numbers at you and say end of discussion, but I believe that’s a great starting point.

Kobe hater gators love to bring up the 6-24 stat line from last year’s game 7, and I can’t help but feel that mentality he had in that game kind of carried over to this season. He’s playing 5 less minutes per game, but only taking 1.5 less shots. His usage rate is at 35.1%, the highest in the last 5 years and the second highest in his career. With so many other talented guys on the roster, does Kobe really need the ball so much? Numbers only tell you so much, but watching him play hasn’t been extremely pretty either. Too often you see iso’s that eat up the shot clock and result in tough, low percentage shots. I’ll be the first to say that when they go in, I feel like I ate a chocolate cake, but through my eyes. Too often though, they don’t go in. And don’t even get me started on the fourth quarter version of Kobe that won’t share the ball.

I used to think that the one area that Kobe would have a leg up on Jordan is the way he leaves the game. Jordan had that perfect movie ending to his career, until he came back to the Wizards and ruined it all. And then dissed everyone in his life during his HOF speech. I had envisioned a Kobe that knew when his time was over, and would slowly reduce his role for the betterment of the team. I can’t tell if this ball hog is the Kobe that we will see 2 years from now. My hope is that Kobe knows what’s up and is only trying to enjoy the last of his ball chucking days while they’re still around.

After all this I’ve banged out about how bad Kobe has been this season, I have to admit that I was very surprised when I took a look at his statistics. More free throw attempts, rebounds, and assists per 36 minutes than last season. Comparable stats everywhere else. A higher PER than last season. Long story short, I don’t know what exactly to think anymore.

I’ve made this all about Kobe, and not about the team, but what else is there to say. Fisher has been nonexistent. Gasol was MVP for the first 3 weeks. (My theory is that Kobe had a private 1-on-1 talk with him and told him to stop stealing the stoplight.) I’m numb to Bynum(I rhymed) and his injuries.

With all that said, let’s go Lakers.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Power Rankings

We, as a nation of sports fans, have an unhealthy obsession with power rankings. Don’t get me wrong, ranking teams is a natural and fun thing to do. We can’t actually crown a team as the champion until the end of the year, and power rankings let us do that every week.

I don’t want to sound like I only care about good teams, but power rankings only really matter for the top 5 or so teams. As a Warriors fan, I don’t  jump out of my chair and yell “Progress!” when my team jumps from the 22nd spot to the 19th spot in some random person’s power rankings. Power rankings try to tell you who’s better beyond the win-loss record, but for mediocre teams that’s almost all that matters.

ESPN has two power rankings available for our entertainment. The featured one is Hollinger’s Power Rankings, which is based on some formula. It’s very good because numbers tell us everything about basketball. Oh wait no they don’t. The other one is by Marc Stein, and he just uses his eyes to tell us what’s up. That’s very good because he watches every game in the week and therefore is qualified to compare all the teams. Oh wait no he doesn’t.

Ending on a happier note, here’s my power rankings for the days in a week.

Rank Day Comments
1 Friday Friday, Friday, gotta get down on Friday
2 Saturday No obligations
3 Sunday Close call between Sunday and Thursday but Sunday has been impressive lately
4 Thursday Almost Friday
5 Tuesday Comes after Monday, which is good
6 Wednesday The word itself is too long so I have to dock it points
7 Monday Garfield hates Mondays, so do I

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

If I Were A Gambling Man 4/5

My Predictions
Spurs(-5.5) over Hawks Yes
Cavaliers(+1.5) over Bobcats Yes
Timberwolves(+5.5) over Nets Yes
Bucks(+8.5) over Magic Yes
Wizards(+1) over Pistons Yes
Celtics(-6) over 76ers Yes
Knicks(-9.5) over Raptors Yes
Suns(+11) over Bulls Yes
Grizzlies(-9.5) over Clippers No
Kings(+9) over Rockets Yes
Thunder(+4.5) over Nuggets Yes
Warriors(+10.5) over Trail Blazers Yes
Jazz(+13.5) over Lakers Yes


Update
Today: 12-1
Overall: 26-12-1

Friday, April 1, 2011

If I Were A Gambling Man 4/1

My Predictions
Pacers(-3) over Bucks No
Magic(-12) over Bobcats Push
Nets(+10.5) over 76ers No
Cavs(+2) over Wizards No
Bulls(-8.5) over Pistons No
Celtics(-1.5) over Hawks No
Hornets(+1) over Grizzlies No
Heat(-11.5) over Timberwolves Yes
Spurs(+1.5) over Rockets No
Suns(-5) over Clippers Yes
Trail Blazers(-3) over Thunder Yes
Nuggets(-5) over Kings Yes
Lakers(-8.5) over Jazz Yes
Confidence Pick: Nets(+10.5) over 76ers
The Bobcats/Magic game seems impossible to bet on. There are 9 players that are day to day. The Spurs big 3 are all day to day also. I have a bad feeling about today’s picks.

Update
Today: 5-7-1
Overall: 14-11-1